NHL Betting: Why Moneylines Beat Puck Lines Every Time

When I started betting NHL, I applied my NFL framework: bet against the spread, find value on underdogs, manage your bankroll. I lost money for a full season.

The problem: hockey doesn't work like football. The "spread" in hockey (the puck line) is almost always -1.5/+1.5, and the odds are adjusted rather than the spread itself. This creates a fundamentally different betting dynamic.

What I learned:

One-goal games are incredibly common. About 25% of NHL games are decided by exactly one goal. That means betting -1.5 loses a quarter of the time on margin alone, regardless of which team is "better."

The empty net goal skews everything. When trailing teams pull their goalie, they often give up an empty-netter. A team that "should have" won by one goal wins by two, not because they dominated, but because of a game-state decision.

Moneyline underdogs are where the value is. In the NFL, a +200 underdog wins maybe 30% of the time. In the NHL, a +200 underdog wins closer to 35-38% of the time. Upsets are more common because puck luck and goaltending variance matter enormously.

My NHL betting approach now:

I bet almost exclusively on moneylines, not puck lines. The implied probabilities on moneylines are easier to evaluate, and I'm not fighting the one-goal margin issue.

I target underdogs in the +130 to +180 range. These are teams that the market thinks have a 35-43% chance of winning. If I can identify spots where that probability is underestimated, there's value.

I track goaltender situations religiously. Backup goalie starts are often undervalued for favorites and overvalued against underdogs. A starter vs. backup matchup can swing a game more than any other single variable.

I avoid heavy favorites. Laying -200 or worse in hockey is a path to slow death. The upset rate doesn't justify the risk.

I bet season win totals aggressively. The NHL win total market is often less efficient than game-to-game markets. Finding teams that will significantly over or underperform expectations has been my best NHL edge.

The result: after a losing first season, I've been profitable in hockey for three consecutive years. It just required unlearning my football assumptions.