Why NBA Totals Are My Bread and Butter

Everyone wants to pick winners. It feels good to say "I had the Lakers" when they win. But after tracking my bets for two full NBA seasons, I noticed something: my totals bets were significantly more profitable than my sides.

At first I thought it was variance. Then I dug into the data and realized there were structural reasons why totals presented better opportunities.

First, pace is easier to predict than performance. Whether a team wins depends on hundreds of variables—shooting percentages, turnovers, referee calls, late-game execution. Whether a game goes over or under depends primarily on pace, and pace is remarkably consistent game-to-game.

Second, the public has biases about sides but not totals. Everyone has opinions on which team is better. Those opinions are baked into the spread. But most casual bettors don't have strong feelings about whether Nuggets-Lakers will go over 223.5. There's less noise in the total market.

Third, rest and travel matter more for totals than sides. A team on the second night of a back-to-back might not be any worse than usual—they still have the same talent, and adrenaline can compensate. But they almost certainly won't run as much. They'll play at a slower pace to conserve energy. Same thing for teams ending a long road trip. This affects totals more than point spreads.

My system now focuses on three NBA total situations:

Back-to-back unders. Both teams on the second night of a back-to-back? Automatic under bet for me. I'm hitting 58% on these.

Revenge game overs. When a team plays against a former star player, both sides want to prove something. The pace picks up, the effort increases, and points get scored. Especially in the regular season when there's no tactical reason to slow down.

Early season overs. The first three weeks of the NBA season consistently go over at a higher rate than the rest of the year. Defenses haven't gelled yet, teams are experimenting with lineups, and everyone's legs are fresh. I hammer overs in October.

Is this less exciting than picking winners? Absolutely. When an over hits because both teams score 115+, there's no bragging rights. You can't tell your friends you "knew" anything.

But you know what's exciting? Making money consistently. My NBA total betting has returned 8.3% ROI over three seasons. My sides betting returned 1.2%. I'll take the boring profit.