Understanding Odds Changed Everything I Thought I Knew

This is embarrassing to admit, but for my first two years of betting, I didn't really understand odds. I knew -110 meant I had to bet $110 to win $100, but I didn't understand the implied probability behind it. I was betting blind.

The day I sat down and actually learned the math, my betting transformed.

Here's what I wish someone had explained to me from day one:

Odds represent probability. -110 implies the bet has about a 52.4% chance of winning. -150 implies about 60%. +150 implies about 40%. Every line has a built-in probability assumption.

The vig is how books profit. If both sides of a bet were fair, they'd be +100 each (50/50). Instead, you see -110/-110, meaning both sides are priced as if they're 52.4% likely. That's 104.8% total probability—the extra 4.8% is the book's edge.

To be profitable, you need to beat the vig. At -110, you need to win 52.4% just to break even. Your actual edge is your win rate minus that breakeven point. If you win 55% at -110, your edge is 2.6%.

Value betting means finding discrepancies. If you believe a team has a 55% chance to cover but the line implies only 52.4%, that's value. The bet is +EV (positive expected value). Finding these discrepancies is the entire game.

Once I understood this framework, I stopped thinking about bets as "winners" and "losers" and started thinking about them as either having positive or negative expected value. A bet can lose and still have been the right bet if it was +EV when placed.

This mental shift changed how I handled losing. Before, a loss was a failure. Now, a loss on a +EV bet is just variance. Over enough bets, the math works out.

I started calculating implied probability before every bet. "The line is -130. That implies 56.5%. Do I think this team has better than a 56.5% chance? If not, I pass."

My win rate didn't change dramatically after learning this. But my discipline improved massively. I stopped making neutral or negative EV bets. I became selective. And my bottom line went from break-even to profitable within six months.

Learn the math. It's not complicated, and it will change everything.