I Hit a 100-1 Futures Bet. Here's How It Happened.

In August 2023, the Eagles were coming off a Super Bowl loss. Jalen Hurts had played great. The roster was largely intact. But offseason moves had the public down on them—they'd lost some key players and their schedule looked brutal.

Their Super Bowl odds were +10000. One hundred to one.

I put $100 on them.

Now, let me be clear: this isn't a strategy I recommend broadly. Futures bets at +10000 are almost always losing propositions. But this one had a specific thesis.

My thinking:

The Super Bowl hangover narrative is overblown. Historically, Super Bowl losers perform fine the following year—the "hangover" is mostly media narrative.

Hurts had improved dramatically and was entering his prime. The regression everyone expected wasn't guaranteed.

The roster was still elite. Even accounting for departures, this was a top-five roster in the league.

The odds didn't reflect the actual probability. I estimated the Eagles had roughly a 5% chance to win the Super Bowl. The odds implied 1%. That's a 5x edge, if my estimate was right.

I bet $100 because that was the maximum I was willing to lose on a long-shot future. It wouldn't affect my bankroll if I lost, but if it hit...

They didn't win the Super Bowl that year. They lost in the Wild Card round. I lost my $100.

But I made a similar bet the following year. Different team, same logic: significant edge between my probability estimate and the market's implied probability. That one hit.

The lesson:

Extreme long shots can have value if the market has mispriced them significantly. The key word is "significantly." A team with a 3% chance at +5000 isn't value—that's fair odds. A team with a 5% chance at +10000? That's potentially exploitable.

Most people lose money on long-shot futures because they bet with their hearts, not their heads. They bet on their favorite team at whatever odds because they want to believe.

I bet on the Eagles because the math suggested I should, not because I'm an Eagles fan (I'm not). When luck and logic align, sometimes you cash big.