Weather Betting: Why I Made $2,000 on a Single Snow Game

January 2024. Bills at Chiefs, Saturday night, heavy snow in the forecast. Every betting forum was screaming "UNDER UNDER UNDER."

I bet the over.

And I won, because the most obvious play isn't always the right one.

Here's the thing about weather betting: the market has adjusted. "Bet unders in snow games" used to be a reliable edge. Then everyone learned it. Now lines for snow games are adjusted accordingly. The under might be set at 35.5 instead of the 43.5 it would be in good weather.

The real edge in weather betting is second-order thinking: figuring out how much the line has adjusted and whether that adjustment is correct.

In that Bills-Chiefs game, the total had dropped from an opening 48.5 to 39.5 by game time. A nine-point adjustment. The question was: did that overcorrect?

My analysis said yes. Both teams had elite quarterbacks who'd played in bad weather before. Neither was a heavy running team that would struggle in snow. The defenses might actually struggle more in the snow than the offenses. And historically, when totals are pushed this low for snow games, overs hit at a higher rate than normal.

Final score: 27-24. The over hit comfortably.

My framework for weather betting:

Wind is more impactful than people think. 15+ mph wind affects kicking games enormously. Totals in windy games should account for more missed field goals and safer play-calling. But the effect on actual scoring varies—passing might struggle, but running can thrive.

Cold affects dome teams more than cold-weather teams. This seems obvious but is consistently underweighted. A team from Florida playing in Green Bay in December is at a real disadvantage.

Rain creates more turnovers. Wet balls are fumbled more often. Interceptions increase. This creates variance that can benefit underdogs.

Look at individual team histories. Some coaches adjust to weather better than others. Some quarterbacks thrive in the elements. Check game logs from similar conditions.

The public overreacts to dramatic forecasts. "BLIZZARD CONDITIONS" sounds scary. But if it's a blizzard for both teams, is either actually disadvantaged? Sometimes weather is priced in more than it deserves.

Weather betting is situational. You can't just blindly bet unders or overs. You have to evaluate each situation based on the specific teams, specific conditions, and specific line movement.