Baseball Betting: Why I Only Bet First Five Innings

Baseball is the worst sport for betting anxiety. Games are three hours long, bullpens are unpredictable, and managers make inexplicable decisions. I can't count how many times I've had a comfortable lead in the 7th inning only to watch some reliever with a 6.00 ERA blow it.

Two years ago, I switched to betting almost exclusively on first five innings (F5) lines. My win rate went up, my stress went down, and I finally started enjoying baseball again.

Here's the logic: Starting pitchers are predictable. We have years of data on how they perform. We know their tendencies, their platoon splits, their home/road splits. By contrast, bullpens are chaos. Guys get hot and cold, managers mix and match based on gut feelings, and the best reliever might not even be available on any given day.

F5 betting removes the bullpen variable entirely. You're betting purely on the matchup between two starters and two lineups. It's a cleaner bet.

The numbers back this up. I tracked 200 full game bets versus 200 F5 bets on the same games last season. My F5 win rate was 54.3%. My full game win rate was 51.2%. That 3% difference might not sound like much, but over hundreds of bets, it's the difference between profit and break-even.

There are specific spots where F5 betting really shines:

Aces against weak offenses. When Max Scherzer faces the A's, you want that bet decided by Scherzer, not by whatever mess the Nationals bullpen has become.

Day games after night games. Tired bullpens are unreliable. The starters are on regular rest, but the relievers might have thrown 30+ pitches the night before. F5 lets you fade the bullpen entirely.

Bad bullpen teams with good starters. The Tigers last year were the perfect example. Tarik Skubal was elite. Their bullpen was a dumpster fire. F5 lines on Skubal starts were basically free money.

The one downside: F5 lines have slightly worse juice than full game lines. You're paying a small premium for the reduced variance. But for me, that premium is absolutely worth it. My sanity has a price, and it's apparently about 3 cents on the dollar.

If you're a baseball bettor who's tired of bullpen roulette, give F5 betting a serious look. Your blood pressure will thank you.