Following Sharp Money: What Actually Works and What's BS

The sports betting internet is obsessed with "sharp money." Every tout claims to know where it's going. Every forum has posts about "reverse line movement" and "steam moves." After two years of specifically tracking and trying to follow sharp action, I can tell you most of it is noise.

Let me explain what sharp money actually is: professional bettors who move lines. When a syndicate or respected individual bettor places a large wager, sportsbooks adjust their lines. If the Packers open at -3 and sharp money comes in on the other side, you'll see the line move to -2.5 or even -2.

The theory is that you can identify these moves and piggyback on them. Bet what the sharps bet. Profit.

Here's the reality:

First, by the time you see the move, it's often too late. Sharp money moves fast. A line might go from -3 to -2.5 in twenty minutes. If you're checking lines once a day, you missed it. And even if you catch it, you're getting -2.5 instead of the -3 the sharps got. Your edge is already diminished.

Second, line movement has many causes. Injuries, weather updates, public betting patterns—all of these move lines. Seeing a line shift doesn't tell you why it shifted. I've bet "sharp moves" that turned out to be injury-related public money. Not useful.

Third, sharps are not infallible. Professional bettors typically hit 54-56% long term. That means they lose 44-46% of the time. Even if you correctly identify sharp action, you're not getting a guaranteed winner.

What does work? Here's what I found valuable:

Opening line analysis. Compare where a line opens to where it closes. If it moves significantly against public betting percentages, that's meaningful. Example: Patriots are 70% public favorites but the line moved from -7 to -6? Something interesting is happening.

Specific books as indicators. Certain offshore books are known to take sharp action first. When their lines diverge significantly from mainstream books, that's a signal worth investigating.

Timing your bets. If you're betting on a side that sharp money favors, bet early in the week. If you're betting against it, wait until close to game time when the line has moved in your favor.

But honestly? The obsession with sharp money is overblown. You're better off developing your own edge through research than trying to copy people you can't actually observe. Sharp money is real, but the cottage industry of claiming to identify it is mostly marketing.