MMA Betting Is Different: Lessons from 500 UFC Bets

After three years of profitable NBA betting, I thought I could easily transition to MMA. Same principles, right? Find value, manage bankroll, win more than 52.4%.

I was humbled fast. My first year of MMA betting was a disaster—down almost 12 units.

Here's what I learned about how MMA is fundamentally different:

Small sample sizes everywhere. An NBA player has 82 games a year. A UFC fighter has 2-3. Making statistical inferences from such small samples is incredibly difficult. A fighter can look unbeatable in five consecutive wins, then get knocked out by someone he "should" beat.

Styles make fights. This cliché is actually profound. In team sports, better teams usually win. In MMA, the specific matchup matters enormously. A fighter who dominated a wrestler might struggle against a striker. My general "this guy is better" analysis was worthless.

Odds are inefficient in predictable ways. Heavy favorites in MMA are overpriced. When a champion is -500, the market is essentially saying they have an 83% chance to win. The actual win rate for heavy favorites historically is closer to 75-78%. There's value in underdogs.

Late replacement fighters are undervalued. When a fighter steps in on short notice, the line adjusts against them. But historically, short-notice fighters cover at a decent rate. They're often highly motivated, and their opponent now has to adjust game plans.

After my first-year disaster, I rebuilt my approach:

I bet fewer fights. In my losing year, I bet almost every card. Now I bet maybe 3-4 fights per month. Only spots where I have genuine conviction.

I size down on favorites. My maximum bet on anyone favored better than -200 is half my standard unit. The downside is too severe relative to the upside.

I watch film differently. Instead of asking "who's better," I ask "how does this fight play out technically?" Is the striker going to get taken down? Can the wrestler handle pressure? These specific questions lead to better predictions.

I track data religiously. I have a spreadsheet with every UFC fight result since 2020, including styles, odds, and outcomes. Pattern recognition requires data.

Year two was modestly profitable. Year three was genuinely good—up 18 units. MMA betting is possible, but you need to approach it as its own discipline, not as an extension of team sports betting.