My First UFC Bet Won $1,200 and I Had No Idea What I Was Doing

December 2023. My friend was hosting a UFC watch party. I'd seen maybe three fights in my life. But I had a sportsbook account and a desire to have some action.

I looked at the card and recognized one name: Conor McGregor. He wasn't fighting that night, so that was useless. I scrolled through and saw a fight where one guy was -380 and the other was +300. I figured the +300 guy was a huge underdog, so maybe there was value.

I put $400 on the underdog. No research. No tape watching. Just vibes.

The dude won by knockout in the first round. I cashed $1,600 on a $400 bet.

My friends thought I was a genius. I knew I was an idiot who got lucky.

But that win got me interested in MMA betting, and over the next two years I actually learned the sport. Here's what I discovered:

That first bet had some accidental logic to it. Heavy favorites in MMA do underperform. My blind contrarian instinct wasn't entirely wrong. But relying on that instinct without understanding why would've destroyed me over time.

MMA requires different analysis than team sports. There's no "team" to be better than another team. It's two individuals with specific skill sets. Understanding how those skills match up is everything.

The information asymmetry is real. In the NFL, everyone knows if the starting quarterback is injured. In MMA, fighters hide injuries, training camp problems, and weight cut issues. Being plugged into the MMA community gives you an edge.

Props are particularly interesting in MMA. Round betting, method of victory, fight to go the distance—these props can have soft lines because the betting volume is lower.

That accidental $1,200 win funded my actual MMA education. I watched old fights, read breakdowns, followed analysts who understood grappling exchanges and striking ranges. Two years later, I'm modestly profitable in UFC betting.

The lesson isn't "bet on underdogs blindly." The lesson is that beginner's luck can open doors, but walking through them requires doing the work. I got lucky once. I'll hopefully be skilled for years.