Player Props Are Where the Real Money Is

For most of my betting career, I stuck to spreads and totals. Player props felt like novelty bets—something to make garbage time interesting, not a serious strategy. I was wrong.

Three years ago, a friend who bets professionally mentioned that props were his biggest edge. His reasoning: sportsbooks employ teams to set game lines. They employ far fewer people to set player props. The lines are softer.

I started tracking props separately from my other bets. First season: 52% win rate, small profit. Second season: 55% win rate, meaningful profit. Third season: 57% win rate, and props are now my most reliable income source.

Here's what I've learned:

Targets and usage are more predictable than stats. I don't bet on a receiver to get exactly 73 yards—too much variance in what specific yards are. I bet on him to get over 5.5 receptions when the target share and game script suggest heavy usage. Targets convert to catches at a predictable rate.

Blowout potential changes everything. A running back's over on rushing yards looks great until you realize his team might be down 21 points at halftime. I specifically look for close-game projections when betting rushers.

Line shopping matters even more for props. Different books have different props lines. I might see a receiver at over 58.5 yards at one book and over 64.5 at another. That 6-yard difference is massive. I maintain accounts at multiple books specifically for this.

Track your prop bets obsessively. I have spreadsheets showing my results by prop type, by sport, by book. This data revealed that I'm profitable on reception props but unprofitable on rushing props. I adjusted accordingly.

Correlation matters in props. If I think a team will blow out their opponent, I might bet on a defender's over on tackles (other team has more plays) and an offensive player's under on yards (game script means running out clock). These bets have a logical connection.

The one warning: props can be addicting. There are hundreds of props per game. It's easy to convince yourself you have an edge on every one. Discipline is crucial. I limit myself to 2-3 prop bets per game maximum. More than that and my edge dilutes.