Betting European Soccer from America: A Beginner's Guide

In 2021, I made my first soccer bet almost as a joke. A friend was visiting from England and insisted we watch Arsenal play. I threw $20 on them to win because I recognized the name. They lost 3-0. Great start.

But something about the experience intrigued me. Soccer has more games than any other sport. More games means more opportunities. So I started learning.

Year one was rough. I bet on names I knew—Manchester United, Barcelona, Juventus—and got destroyed. These are the teams everyone bets, which means the lines are efficient and often shaded toward the public. I lost about $600.

Year two, I started narrowing focus. Instead of betting across all leagues, I picked one: the German Bundesliga. I watched every game I could. I read German sports media (thank you, Google Translate). I learned which teams were transitioning, which managers were under pressure, which youth players were emerging.

By year three, I was profitable. Not because I had superior information, but because I knew one league deeply while the market treated it as secondary to the Premier League. The lines were softer. The edges were bigger.

Here's what I've learned about soccer betting from an American perspective:

Time zones are both a curse and a blessing. Most European games kick off between 9 AM and 3 PM Eastern. You're betting while most Americans are at work or asleep. This means less sharp American money in the markets, which can create opportunities.

Focus on one league. The market for Premier League is extremely efficient. Massive betting handle, tons of sharp action. Try the Bundesliga, Serie A, or even Ligue 1. Less betting interest means more inefficiencies.

Avoid huge favorites. In soccer, the best team doesn't win as often as in other sports. Even a -300 favorite loses outright more than the odds suggest. I almost never lay more than -150 on a soccer match.

Draws are undervalued. In American sports, ties are rare or impossible. We're conditioned to pick sides. But draws happen in about 25% of soccer matches, and the public consistently undervalues them.

The over/under 2.5 goals market is interesting. It's the most common total, and there are specific situations where it presents value—like when two defensively solid mid-table teams meet.

My soccer betting is now more profitable than my NFL betting, which I never expected. It took time to develop the knowledge, but the edge is real and sustainable.