The Home Underdog System That's Paid My Car Payment for Two Years

Two years ago, I read a study about home underdogs in the NFL. The data showed that home dogs of 3-7 points covered at a rate significantly higher than expected. I was skeptical—if the edge was that obvious, wouldn't it be arbitraged away?

I started tracking these bets religiously, and the results speak for themselves: over two seasons, I've bet 67 NFL home underdogs between +3 and +7, and I've won 41 of them. That's 61.2%. At standard -110 juice, that's a massive edge.

Why does this work?

First, the public loves favorites. Casual bettors want to pick winners, and backing a team on the road feels more confident than backing an underdog. This creates consistent value on home dogs.

Second, home field advantage is undervalued in the current market. The analytics movement has convinced people that home field only matters for 1-2 points. But the emotional and psychological impact of a home crowd, especially for underdogs with something to prove, is hard to quantify.

Third, there's survivorship bias in how we remember games. When a road favorite wins by 10, it feels expected. When a home dog wins outright, it feels like an upset. But the data shows these "upsets" happen more regularly than the lines suggest.

Here's my exact system:

I identify all NFL home underdogs between +3 and +7 on Tuesday when lines first post. I do a brief research check—are there significant injuries that explain the line? Is this a situational spot where the home team has extra motivation? I eliminate obvious trap games (home team on short rest, coming off a huge win, etc.).

What remains goes into my weekly card at 1.5 units each.

That's it. No complex modeling, no proprietary data, no algorithm. Just disciplined betting on a market inefficiency that has persisted for years.

Now, a warning: this system has losing weeks. I've gone 0-4 and 1-4 multiple times. If you can't stomach short-term losses, this isn't for you. But over the course of a season, the edge asserts itself.

My two-year profit on this system alone is around $4,200. That's been covering my car payment with a little left over. Not life-changing, but proof that simple, disciplined strategies can work.