Fixed vs. Variable Stakes: How I Finally Figured Out What Works for Me

The great debate in sports betting circles: should you bet flat stakes (same amount on every bet) or variable stakes (more on confident plays, less on longshots)?

I've tried both extensively. Here's what I've concluded.

My first two years: variable stakes.

I used a 1-5 unit scale. My "strongest" plays got 5 units. Decent plays got 2-3 units. Marginal plays got 1 unit.

The problem: I was terrible at assessing my own confidence. My 5-unit plays didn't win at a higher rate than my 2-unit plays. In fact, my most confident plays were often my worst because overconfidence led to missing contrary information.

I also found that my overall results were basically the same as if I'd flat-staked everything. The extra stress of deciding unit sizes added no value.

Years three and four: flat stakes.

I switched to a strict 2-unit bet on everything. Every play I made was the same size. This simplified my process enormously.

The results: slightly better than my variable years, primarily because I was making fewer bad decisions about sizing. But I noticed something—there were genuinely some plays that deserved more weight. A few times a season, situations arose where the edge was clearly larger than normal.

Year five and beyond: modified flat stakes.

Now I use a hybrid approach. My standard bet is 2 units. But I have a specific category of plays—let's call them "A+ situations"—that get 3 units.

The key: A+ situations are defined by objective criteria, not gut feeling. They include: - Specific situational edges I've tracked over years of data - Significant line movement in my favor after I've already committed mentally - Rare spots where multiple edges stack (e.g., home dog + weather + injury advantage)

I make maybe 5-10 of these 3-unit plays per month. Everything else is 2 units.

This approach prevents me from over-betting on feelings while still capitalizing on genuinely strong situations. It's the best of both worlds for how my brain works.

But here's the honest truth: the sizing system matters less than most people think. Whether you flat stake or vary stakes, your edge comes from making good picks. Get that right first, then optimize the sizing.