Betting the XFL Was the Most Fun I've Ever Had Losing Money

When the XFL relaunched in 2023, I decided to treat it as a laboratory. Here was a league with no historical data, uncertain rosters, and sportsbooks scrambling to set lines. If there was ever a place to find inefficiencies, this was it.

I bet every single XFL game that season. Here's what I learned:

Week 1 lines were essentially random. Without any game film, sportsbooks were guessing based on roster composition and coach reputation. The lines were soft. I went 5-3 in Week 1 just by doing basic research on depth charts and coaching backgrounds.

The market got efficient fast. By Week 3, the books had film to analyze. Sharp bettors had identified the good teams. Lines tightened dramatically. My edge disappeared.

Totals stayed soft longer than sides. It took the market weeks to figure out proper totals for XFL games. The pace was faster than the NFL, the talent level was different, and the books were consistently setting totals too low in the early weeks.

Public perception lagged reality. The DC Defenders started 0-2 and were dismissed by casual bettors. But their underlying metrics were solid. By the time they won five straight, the books had adjusted. The value was in weeks 3-4 when no one believed in them yet.

Injury information was gold. The XFL didn't have the same injury reporting requirements as the NFL. If you followed beat reporters and team social media, you could know about significant injuries before the betting market did.

My overall XFL results: up about $600 on maybe $2,000 wagered. Not life-changing, but educational.

The meta-lesson is that new leagues and new markets are where edges are most available. Sportsbooks are information processors—when they lack information, they set imprecise lines. Finding these situations and exploiting them temporarily is viable, as long as you recognize that the window closes quickly.

I'd bet another XFL season in a heartbeat. Or USFL. Or any new league that pops up. The first few weeks are a bettor's dream.