Tennis Betting: How I Found an Edge in a Sport I Barely Watched

I'll be honest: I find tennis kind of boring. But three years ago, a professional bettor told me that tennis was where he made most of his money. "The markets are inefficient," he said. "And there's matches every single day."

I decided to test this despite having zero interest in the sport. Here's what I learned:

Why tennis lines are soft:

Lower betting volume. The Super Bowl gets billions wagered. A Tuesday ATP 250 match in Antwerp gets comparatively nothing. Less money means less sharp action, which means more inefficiencies.

Injury and fatigue information is harder to access. Tennis players play multiple times per week, often in different countries. Tracking their physical state requires dedication most bettors don't have.

Surface and conditions matter enormously. The same player can be dominant on clay and mediocre on grass. These adjustments aren't always properly reflected in odds.

Motivation varies wildly. A top player might go all-out at Wimbledon but coast through a minor tournament. Reading motivation requires following the tour closely.

My approach to tennis betting:

I don't bet the big matches. Nadal vs. Djokovic at the French Open is efficiently priced. Sharp bettors have analyzed it from every angle. I focus on lower-level matches and early rounds of bigger tournaments.

I track fatigue and scheduling. Did a player just fly from Asia to Europe? Did they play a grueling five-setter yesterday? These factors create exploitable situations.

I learned the surface dynamics. Knowing which players thrive or struggle on specific surfaces gives you an edge when the market prices someone based on overall ranking alone.

I bet live, a lot. Tennis has natural momentum swings. A player down a set might actually be in good position if they're winning more points overall. Live lines sometimes overreact to set scores.

My results:

Year one: Lost 3 units. Tuition. Year two: Gained 8 units. Starting to understand. Year three: Gained 15 units. Genuinely profitable.

I still don't watch tennis for fun. But I watch it for money, and that's been worth my time.