What I Learned Betting NFL Games for Five Straight Seasons

I made my first NFL bet in September 2021. Patriots -3.5 against the Dolphins. Lost by a field goal. Classic bad beat to start my career, and looking back, a fitting introduction to what this hobby would become.

Over the next five seasons, I tracked every single bet in a spreadsheet. 847 total NFL wagers. Here's what the data taught me:

Home underdogs in divisional games are undervalued. My best category by far was betting home dogs of 3 points or less against division rivals. Something about the familiarity, the crowd, the shortened travel—these teams consistently outperformed expectations. I hit 61% on these spots over five years.

Primetime games are efficient. The sharps have pored over Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football lines. The public has bet them. By kickoff, these lines are usually razor-sharp. My record in primetime games is basically 50-50. I've learned to mostly skip them unless there's an obvious injury situation the line hasn't caught up to.

Weather matters more than people think. Not just for totals—everyone knows to bet unders in snow games. I mean for sides. Dome teams traveling to cold-weather cities in December consistently underperform. The Falcons, Saints, Cowboys—these teams have struggled to cover late-season road games in places like Green Bay and Chicago.

Trust the backup quarterback fade. When a team is starting a backup for the first time, the line usually doesn't adjust enough. Yes, sometimes the backup comes out firing (hello, Brock Purdy), but most of the time they're overwhelmed. I'm 34-19 betting against teams starting their first game with a new QB.

Don't bet your favorite team. I'm a lifelong Bears fan. My record betting on Bears games is abysmal. I either overestimate them because of emotional attachment or overcorrect and fade them too aggressively. Either way, I've lost money. Now I just don't bet any game involving Chicago.

The NFL is getting harder to beat. This is the uncomfortable truth. In 2021, I hit 56% of my bets. By 2025, I was at 52%. Lines are sharper, information spreads faster, and everyone has access to the same analytics. The edge is shrinking.

But here's the thing: even a small edge, applied consistently with proper bankroll management, adds up. My total profit over five years is just under $8,000. That's not life-changing money, but it's real. It's funded vacations, holiday gifts, and a nice emergency fund.

The best piece of advice I can give? Specialize. Don't try to bet every sport, every league, every game. Find your niche. For me, it's NFL divisional games and certain late-season situations. Know those matchups cold, and ignore everything else.