Why I Bet NFL Preseason Games (And How It's Different Than Regular Season)

The common wisdom is that NFL preseason games are unbeatable. Starters play random amounts, coaches experiment, and outcomes are essentially random.

The common wisdom is mostly right. But "mostly" isn't "completely," and there are specific angles I've exploited profitably.

The key insight: preseason games have different motivations than regular season games.

For teams with settled rosters, preseason is about avoiding injuries. They'll play starters for a series or two, then pull them regardless of score. These games are genuinely random.

For teams with quarterback battles, preseason matters. A QB fighting for the starting job is playing to win. His supporting cast is also motivated—they're trying to make the roster. These games have real effort.

For third-string players, every snap is an audition. In the fourth preseason game, when rosters are being cut to 53, the guys playing are desperate. There's motivation, even if the quality of play is lower.

My specific angles:

I bet unders heavily. With starters pulled early and teams running basic plays, scoring is typically lower than the totals suggest. Preseason unders have been my most consistent profit source.

I target teams with motivation asymmetry. If Team A has a QB battle and Team B has an entrenched starter, Team A's backups are likely to outperform Team B's backups who are just trying to survive.

I bet against teams with nothing to prove. Loaded rosters with established players rarely bring intensity to preseason. Their depth players know they're not making the team regardless. These teams underperform.

I ignore Week 1 of preseason and focus on Weeks 2-3. By then, coaches have established some patterns, but the experimentation is still high enough to create inefficiencies.

My preseason results over three years: +11 units on about 40 bets per year. Not huge volume, but a solid ROI of around 9%.

I don't recommend preseason betting for most people—it requires specific research into roster situations that most bettors won't do. But if you're willing to put in that work, the markets are soft.