NFL Teasers: The One Type of Parlay That Actually Makes Sense

I've written before about how parlays are mathematically terrible bets. The house edge compounds with each leg, and long-term you're just donating money. But there's one exception: NFL teasers with specific numbers.

A teaser lets you adjust the point spread in your favor in exchange for reduced odds. Instead of taking the Packers at -6 (-110), you could tease them down to -0 (pick 'em) but need to combine it with another adjusted line. Standard teasers give you 6 points on each leg.

Here's why certain teasers have positive expected value:

In the NFL, the most common margin of victory is 3 points, followed by 7 points. These are the "key numbers." If you can tease a line through both 3 and 7, you're buying the most valuable points available.

The classic teaser is a 6-point, 2-team teaser with lines of -7.5 to -8.5 or +1.5 to +2.5. Teasing -7.5 down to -1.5 crosses through both 7 and 3. Teasing +1.5 up to +7.5 also crosses both. These teasers hit at a rate high enough to overcome the reduced payout.

I track my teaser results separately from other bets. Over three NFL seasons, I've placed 147 two-team teasers that followed my key number rules. My win rate is 73.4%. At standard teaser odds (-120 for two-teamers), that's a profitable strategy.

The rules I follow:

Only tease through 3 AND 7. A teaser from -5 to +1 only crosses 3. It's not as valuable. I want both key numbers.

Only two-team teasers. Three-teamers and beyond have too much compounding vig. The math stops working.

Avoid totals teasers. Key numbers don't apply the same way to totals. Stick to sides.

Don't force it. Some weeks there are zero games that fit my criteria. That's fine. I'd rather not bet than make a suboptimal teaser.

The reason this works is that the sportsbooks' teaser odds are based on average NFL games. But when you specifically select games that cross key numbers, your expected win rate is higher than average. You're exploiting a specific inefficiency.

Is this as exciting as hitting a 10-leg parlay? No. But it's profitable. And in sports betting, profitable should be your goal.